Model the pace · Read the race · Build your bets
This engine simulates races from the ground up — modeling how each horse's run style (E / E-P / P / S) interacts with the pace shape and distance to produce realistic outcomes. Contested early speed burns out front-runners and sets up closers; lone speed steals races; sprints reward early position while routes reward late energy.
Ratings auto-generate realistically from run style and class, calibrated against documented run-style win rates. The model then runs a Monte Carlo to find each horse's true win probability and builds a public-shaded morning line — the gap between them is where betting value lives.
| PP | Horse | Run Style | Early Spd | Late Kick | Class | Consistency |
|---|
Edit any value to override the auto-generated rating. Run style drives the defaults: E wants the lead, E/P presses, P stalks, S closes.
Run the race many times — each run re-rolls the pace scenario and every horse's trip, so you see the full distribution of realistic outcomes. Then test a ticket against those frequencies to see how often each bet actually hits and what it pays.
Save your current field + ticket together as a named scenario. Load any saved scenario later to restore both at once.
Don't have a race handy? Generate a random field to test your bet strategy.
| PP | Horse Name | ML Odds | Numerator | Denominator |
|---|
Click horses to select for each position. Select multiple in a position to cover several combinations at once (e.g. 1st: 3,4 / 2nd: 7,8 = four exactas).
Click horses for each position. Multiple selections per position create multiple trifectas. Example: 1st: 3,4 / 2nd: 7,8 / 3rd: 2 = four combinations. Combos that repeat a horse are skipped automatically.
Click horses for each of the four positions. Multiple selections per position create multiple superfectas. Combos that repeat a horse are skipped automatically.